The Top 15 National League Spring Training Storylines
We’re now a week into spring training, and there’s still plenty of time for players fighting to make their team to make a great impression. Some teams have more or less decided how their 26-man rosters are going to look, but every team has at least a couple of questions they’d like to have more clarity on before the regular season kicks off. We already looked at some spring training storylines for the American League clubs, so here’s a crash course on what fans of the National League teams ought to be paying attention to throughout March:
Atlanta Braves – Will the Bullpen Still Be a Strength Even After Turnover?
The Braves lost several key bullpen pieces during the offseason after declining Darren O’Day’s option, letting Mark Melancon sign with the Padres and watching Shane Greene languish on the open market. However, the Braves are still an excellent team with one of the deeper bullpens in the league. Will Smith is the favorite to get most of their save opportunities. He was a solid closer with the Giants in 2018/2019 but will want to put some poor fortune from his first season with the Braves in 2020 behind him. A positive COVID-19 test kept him a few weeks behind the camp’s other pitchers preparation-wise and he never got back on track . He only gave up 11 hits in his 16 innings, which was good, but seven of those 11 were home runs, which was very bad – and probably pretty unlucky. He even gave up a decisive home run in Game 5 of the NLCS to his Dodgers doppelgänger – not that Will Smith, but this Will Smith. There isn’t a lot of reason to assume his troubles with the gopher ball are the new normal, though, which is good for Braves fans.
Behind Smith in the ‘pen will be a group including Chris Martin, A.J. Minter, Tyler Matzek, Jacob Webb, Grant Dayton, and Luke Jackson, with the eighth spot probably going to a long-reliever type like Sean Newcomb or Josh Tomlin. Of those first seven, four are lefties – as is Newcomb – so the handedness balance is a little abnormal even though the group as a whole should be pretty good. Depending on how each of these guys fare in camp, the Braves might want to consider circling back to Shane Greene in free agency – though there’s not a whole lot of pressure on them to do so.
Miami Marlins – What Will the Rotation Look Like?
The Marlins were surprisingly competent in 2020, getting off to a fast start even after the squad was decimated by COVID-19 in the first week of the season. They ended up finishing second in the NL East with a 31-29 record on the back of strong pitching. According to manager Don Mattingly, Sandy Alcantara, Pablo López, and Elieser Hernández are the locks to comprise the top three-fifths of the rotation entering the season. A bit more surprisingly, he was a little more noncommittal when asked whether or not top prospect Sixto Sánchez would be guaranteed a starting spot. Sixto and catcher Jorge Alfaro were the big pieces coming to Miami in the trade that sent J.T. Realmuto to Philly in one of those rare blockbuster deals that seems like it might turn out well for both sides. Not only is Sixto the Marlins’ #2 prospect and #25 in the game according to Keith Law, but he had a fantastic debut season in 2020, finishing with a 3.46 ERA and 1.4 WAR in his 39 innings. It would be a huge shock if he doesn’t claim the #4 spot in the rotation thanks to this effort, even if Mattingly doesn’t want to gift him the role quite yet. The fifth spot will be more of an open competition in camp, with Trevor Rogers, Nick Neidert, Braxton Garrett, and minor league signee Gio González among the names battling for a seat at the adults’ table.
New York Mets – Should Lindor Buy or Rent a New Home in Queens?
The Mets are undergoing a renaissance under new owner Steve Cohen, and they look poised to be at least the fourth-best team in the NL behind the Dodgers, Padres, and Braves. If a few things break right for them (which would be unusual for the Mets), they do actually have a chance of overtaking the Braves for the NL East crown, but that effort starts with their new in-house superstar Francisco Lindor. The shortstop is entering a contract year for his new team and couldn’t have any more motivation to put up an MVP-quality season. The problem is it would take an absolutely monster extension offer to entice Lindor to forego entering the open market, where bidding for his services would undoubtedly reach…heights. If Fernando Tatís Jr. can ink a $340 million deal with less than a full season’s worth of career at-bats under his belt, could Lindor be on the cusp of earning more? Quite possibly.
If there ever was a team in a good position to meet Lindor’s demands, it’s the Mets right now. Keeping him in Queens long-term would solidify this season as the start of a new era of Mets baseball and keep the team relevant for years to come – not to mention the marketing opportunities would be endless. Lindor set Opening Day as a deadline for extension discussions so that it won’t become a distraction during the regular season. If an extension is coming, it’s going to happen in the next few weeks.
Philadelphia Phillies – Can Their Historically Bad ‘Pen from Last Year Become an Asset?
There aren’t any words in the English language to describe just how awful the Phillies’ bullpen was in 2020, but perhaps there’s some German phrase that would suffice. Phillies relievers combined for a laughably terrible 7.06 ERA, by far the worst in the majors, and they blew eight separate three-run leads – in a 60-game season, no less! If their bullpen had even been an average unit, they would have been a playoff team. They finished 28-32 last year and two more wins would have allowed them to sneak into wild card position in the expanded postseason field.
To their credit, the Phillies made multiple moves this offseason to improve their bullpen on top of their investments to re-sign J.T. Realmuto and Didi Gregorius. Former Diamondbacks standout Archie Bradley was brought in via free agency and should be a good option to pitch some high-leverage innings late in games. Hard throwing lefty José Alvarado was also acquired via a three-team deal with the Rays and Dodgers, Brandon Kintzler was signed coming off a nice year with the Marlins, and Tony Watson was inked to provide a few more stable left-handed innings as well. I believe the Phillies did enough this offseason to ensure their bullpen will be vastly improved this year, but seeing how they all gel together in camp will go a long way towards backing up that theory.
Washington Nationals – Which Josh Bell Are They Going to Get?
If you had to pick two position players from any one team, it would be hard to come up with a better pair than Juan Soto and Trea Turner. These guys, particularly the former, are game-changing threats who could anchor any lineup in the game. However, once Anthony Rendon skipped town last season, they were lacking that big bat to hit behind Soto, and they suffered for it in 2020. They put up one of the weakest title defense seasons in recent memory, managing just a 26-34 record after winning the World Series just a year prior. Now, pretty much no one expects the Nationals to be at the same level as the Braves and Mets, even with Soto, Turner and Max Scherzer all bound to represent them at the All-Star Game.
Enter Josh Bell. Bell was extremely disappointing with the lowly Pirates last year, putting up a 77 wRC+ and -0.4 WAR in 57 games after posting 37 homers, a 135 wRC+ and 2.4 WAR in his 143 games in 2019. Even if the truth behind his talent is closer to his career 113 wRC+, it would deepen the middle of the lineup immeasurably.
Chicago Cubs – Is Nico Hoerner the Future at Second Base?
It’s not unusual for MLB teams to be cheap. It’s more unusual when one of the biggest-market teams in baseball, with a strong core in place that made the playoffs five of the last six years, decides to punt on the season before it begins in a wide-open division like the NL Central where no team was going for it. The Cardinals eventually made their intentions known when they were gifted Nolan Arenado.
Yu Darvish, runner-up for the NL Cy Young award last year, was traded to San Diego in what amounted to a salary-dumping move. Darvish is on the older side now, sure, but is coming off his best season ever and is on a contract that shouldn’t be onerous for one of the most wealthy clubs in baseball like the Cubs. Kyle Schwarber is also gone, though at least he has a competent replacement in Joc Pederson. With the Cubs facing payroll constraints at the behest of the tight-fisted Ricketts family, young controllable stars are going to have to be the team’s future like Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Javier Báez were when they won the World Series.
Nico Hoerner is going to have to come in. He’s a contact-oriented hitter who can play solid defense at either middle infield spot, but his ticket to playing time in 2021 will be second base due to Báez’s presence. He had a pretty poor season at the plate in 2020, but in his first 20 MLB games in 2019 he managed to hit .282, and with a pretty low .292 BABIP too. He’s got a chance to cement himself into a starting role with good spring play, and for what it’s worth, he’s had seven hits in his first 10 at-bats so far. He always had a good approach in the minors, and he could put it all together at the major league level this year.
Cincinnati Reds – What the Heck is Going On at Shortstop?
The Reds had an offseason that went about as well as the Cubs’, but at least they have the excuse of being a small-market team who spent a little too frivolously the last couple years. A team that plays in only the 37th-largest media market in the U.S. (according to Sports Media Watch, the smallest TV market of any team in MLB) that has Joey Votto’s $25 million on the books for 2021 in addition to four other guys earning eight-figures a year will probably not have much capacity to spend elsewhere. Clearly there was nothing left in the reserves because the Reds did practically nothing to address the gaping hole they have at shortstop. The plan right now seems to be for catcher-turned-utility guy Kyle Farmer, who has never played 100 games in a season nor put up a wRC+ above 76, to be the Opening Day starter. Dee Strange-Gordon, who is coming off three bad seasons with the Mariners and hasn’t played shortstop regularly since 2013 due to his poor throwing arm, will apparently be his backup. 22 year old Jose Garcia, who played short for about a third of last season proved that he needs more seasoning in the minors. Ending up in this bleak of a situation at short should have been Plan Z for the Reds, who have lost Trevor Bauer but otherwise have a bunch of veterans at other positions who ought to be on contending teams. The Reds will wait and see what Farmer and Strange-Gordon can do in camp but may acquire another team’s 40-man roster casualty before all’s said and done.
Milwaukee Brewers – Too Many Cooks, Not Enough Kitchens
The Brewers became an active team late in the offseason, signing a pair of lefty-hitting defensive wizards in second baseman Kolten Wong and center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. No doubt Brewers pitchers are rejoicing from these pickups, but their additions will make playing time a bit harder to find for their other position players (a good problem to have from the team’s perspective, for sure). Avisaíl García will probably only be the short side of a platoon going forward assuming Lorenzo Cain can shake off a quad injury in time for Opening Day. Daniel Vogelbach will have to fight to make the big-league roster at all now that the slugging Keston Hiura will be taking over primary first base duties, and third base will be a pretty open battle during spring training between all of Travis Shaw, Luis Urías and Daniel Robertson. Like Vogelbach, outfielder Derek Fisher is out of options and will have to showcase strong play this spring or risk being sent through waivers again. It’s a little hard to see him making the team at this point, but he could for a little while at least if Cain starts the season on the IL. Not all of these guys are the most exciting options out there, but at least the Brewers have good depth at the major league level that will help them navigate a weak NL Central. The playing time fights will make the Brewers one of the more interesting teams to keep an eye on this spring.
Pittsburgh Pirates – Anyone Other than Ke’Bryan Hayes Stepping Up?
Ke’Bryan Hayes is just about the only good thing Pirates fans have to look forward to this season. The rest of the roster – top-to-bottom – is pretty much devoid of premium talent, at least on paper. Bryan Reynolds was a pretty unheralded prospect before he joined the Pirates in 2019 and broke out with a .314/.377/.503 line, but then plummeted to a .189/.275/.357 slash line in 2020. He should have a chip on his shoulder in camp to prove that 2020 was an aberration, and Gregory Polanco will have similar motivation to prove he can be the guy who used to look like a perennial breakout candidate. Jacob Stallings could be a top-20 catcher in 2021, at least, and Mitch Keller still has mid-rotation potential despite a shaky go of things to begin his career. Other than those guys, you have to squint really hard to find any real breakout candidates on the roster, but games aren’t played on paper. That’s a lucky development for the Pirates, since on paper the only thing that could keep them from losing 110+ games this season is the weak division they call home.
St. Louis Cardinals – Is Dylan Carlson Ready Yet?
For the first half of the offseason, it looked as if the Cardinals would stay sitting on their hands and refusing to break from the pack to try hard to win the division. Then they absolutely laid waste to the Rockies in an embarrassingly lopsided trade that gifted them generational third baseman Nolan Arenado. They needed a middle-of-the-order bat to protect Paul Goldschmidt in the lineup, so they got him – and what’s more, he’s a four-time platinum glove winner. Their historic battery of Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina is back for at least one more year, too, so the present looks very bright for the Cardinals – but what about the future?
Dylan Carlson, the team’s #1 prospect and #9 prospect in the game per Keith Law, is the focal point of that future. Now that Dexter Fowler is finally gone, a corner outfield spot is finally Carlson’s for the taking – if he can prove he’s ready for it. The Cardinals must be praying that he is, since the backup plan would probably be for Tommy Edman to start in the outfield and Matt Carpenter to be the everyday second baseman – which would be less than ideal. Carlson’s switch-hitting bat would go a long way towards helping balance a lineup that leans heavily right-handed, and if he could join Arenado in helping reinvigorate a lineup that scored the third-fewest runs of any team in the majors last year, it could clinch their path to becoming NL Central champs.
Arizona Diamondbacks – Can MadBum Right the Ship?
Madison Bumgarner’s first season as a D-Back was by far the worst effort of his career, finishing with a 6.48 ERA and 7.18 FIP in 41 innings of work. I wrote a little bit a few months ago about how his velocity has been trending down each of the past few years, which is a problem even though he’s never been a guy to rely purely on throwing gas to get hitters out. The concern is that the life is leaving his arm after years of overuse, as he’s tallied 1,990 innings in his career between the regular season and playoffs. Taking a deep dive into his 2020 numbers, you can see why things went off the rails for him last year – his ground ball percentage (31.9%), fly ball percentage (41.8%), line drive percentage (26.2%), pull percentage (52.5%) and hard contact percentage (44.0%) were all career worsts. With any luck, the shortened 2020 season will be just the ticket he needed to allow his arm some needed rest and putting an extra chip on his broad shoulders. Arizona placed a lot of faith in him when they signed him to a five-year, $85 million deal, so getting him back on track will be absolutely crucial if they want to have any prayer of putting together a competitive club in the NL West. His first spring appearance was very successful as he struck out six in his two innings of work, providing an excellent platform for him to build off of going forward.
Colorado Rockies – Does It Matter?
The Colorado Rockies have never won their division in their entire history, and it’s doubtful they ever will until they get a new owner. Richard “Dick” Monfort hasn’t just driven the franchise into the ground, he’s made the Kola Superdeep Borehole look like a crack in the sidewalk. Calling the Rockies a major league team is not unlike calling Mark Zuckerberg a human man – it’s technically true, but it just doesn’t feel right. Arenado is gone, as was Troy Tulowitzki, as was Matt Holliday, and as was every popular Rockie their fanbase has had the misfortune of caring about. Trevor Story, the last reason any fan would have to tune in to a Rockies game, has one foot out the door. If Dick and GM Jeff Bridich had two brain cells to rub together, they would trade him and German Márquez for prospects while they still can and rebuild their derelict farm system, but their collective delusion runs too deep. If anything, Dick probably stands by his ridiculous prediction that his team would win 94 games a year ago. All Rockies fans can do at this point is take up disc golf or another hobby, protest with their wallets and keep Coors Field empty until Dick and his deadbeat general manager are forced out of town.
Los Angeles Dodgers – The Trevor Bauer Show
The Dodgers don’t have anything left to prove at this point. They’re the best team in the sport, plain and simple. The scary part is that this team, coming off of a World Series championship, got better over the offseason. They added the polarizing Trevor Bauer on a record deal with a somewhat complicated structure. Bauer has been inconsistent throughout his career, and it’s questionable if he’s worth the $47 million in a single year that he would be guaranteed in the second year of his deal, but there’s no doubt that every rotation in baseball would be better off with him in it. He’s coming off a Cy Young season where he dominated the relatively weak lineups he faced on NL Central division teams, but how will he fare if he’s asked to pitch a third time through the order against heavy-hitting teams like the Padres and Braves? Time will tell, and time will also tell if the Dodgers will let him live out his dream of starting every fourth day (unlikely, but you never know). One thing’s for sure, the media hype train Bauer’s been trying to propagate for himself is going to go into hyperdrive now that he’s under the bright lights of LA. For some that’s really bad news, and for others baseball just got more entertaining.
San Diego Padres – Ha-seong Kim and the Domino Effect
Like their behemoth neighbors to the north, the Padres were an already great team who got even better over the winter. Their big trades for pitchers Blake Snell, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove are at the forefront of that advancement, but what they did on the position player side was pretty darn interesting, too. Ha-seong Kim, a 25-year-old infielder from the KBO, has made his way stateside and will try to prove himself on the sport’s biggest stage. He was primarily a shortstop for his former team, the Kiwoom Heroes, but he has experience at every other position in the infield as well. Where the Padres will play him is the big question, as every position on the diamond was seemingly already spoken for. It’s likely that he’ll start off the year platooning with Jake Cronenworth at second base and appearing at other positions later in games as a defensive replacement after pinch hitting. An injury could provide a clearer path to playing time for him, as could a poor performance from one of Cronenworth or Eric Hosmer. Kim’s presence also will limit the opportunities utilityman Jurickson Profar gets in the infield, so it seems that Profar will be getting into games more often as an outfielder – which could help hedge against Wil Myers reverting to being average at the plate or Tommy Pham not getting back to his old self after suffering a vicious attack over the offseason. What’s clear is that the Padres have contingency plans in place for every corner of their roster, which they’re going to need if they want to stay in lockstep with the Dodgers all season long.
San Francisco Giants – You Can’t Have 15 Guys in the Bullpen
Like the Phillies, the Giants would have found themselves in Wild Card position if not for some terrible relief pitching. Trevor Gott had one of the roughest three-game sequences any pitcher’s ever had, single-handedly blowing a five-run lead, three-run lead and one-run lead in three straight appearances. Reyes Moronta also missed the entire year due to surgery on his right shoulder labrum, and no one else in the pen had a particularly exciting year. The good news for the Giants heading into the season is that Moronta will be back, and Gott will be gone. Tony Watson skipped town for Philly, but Giants GM Farhan Zaidi acquired a litter of other arms to fill out the rest of the bullpen and provide for plentiful minor league depth. Zaidi signed more than ten pitchers from outside the organization on either major or minor-league deals over the offseason, including starters Anthony DeSclafani and Aaron Sanchez, but the most likely among them to be included in the bullpen on Opening Day are Jake McGee, Matt Wisler, José Álvarez, Shun Yamaguchi, and Rule 5 selection Dedniel Nunez. John Brebbia will also force his way into the mix late in the season once he is fully recovered from Tommy John surgery. McGee and Wisler are locks in that relief group, Álvarez is more likely than Yamaguchi because he’s already on the 40-man roster, and Nunez would have to have a very impressive spring to make the team because he hasn’t pitched an inning above A ball yet. As a Rule 5 selection, though, he can’t be optioned to the minors without first being offered back to the team he was claimed from, which in his case was the Mets. Zaidi must have watched a Ted Talk about how competition breeds excellence, because there are at least ten arms in the Giants camp fighting for the last three or so spots left in the bullpen. At any rate, the unit as a whole should be an improvement over last year’s group, and the Giants should have realistic designs at finishing third in the NL West – albeit a distant third.
-Michael Swinehart
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